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The experts have been predicting a “soft landing” for the New Zealand economy - but are we in fact well past the point of no return on the road to recession?

I’ve just released the results of my latest survey and the numbers are not much changed from where they were at the end of June. Buyers remain in the shadows and prices are falling all around the country.

On average over the past decade there have been around 81,000 dwellings sold each year all around New Zealand, but the way things are tracking we look set to see a fall to around 65,000 within the coming year. How will we know when things are going to turn around?

Independent Economist Tony Alexander gives us a breakdown of what is happening in financial markets and the housing market.

When will house prices stop falling? No-one knows. But it looks like we are quite a long way off the bottom being reached for a number of reasons.

Here is a quick high level run-through of the main things happening in the residential real estate market on average in New Zealand.

Recently, I wrote a lengthy article listing the main things I am saying about the NZ residential property market at the moment – some of which I have been warning about for 12-18 months. Here are most of those points in summarised form.

The expectation held by most of us is that average prices will fall about 10%. That sounds reasonable. But before anyone gets fixated on that number it pays to note something very important.

As Kiwi businesses and consumers are left to grapple with a nasty cocktail of inflation and higher interest rates, there will be a raft of implications for our economy.

As Kiwis grapple with the double whammy of higher interest rates and high inflation, there’s no doubt people are starting to feel the pinch. Could current economic pressures lead to a drop in house prices?

There are five strong forces acting to pull back the level of intensity of buyer demand for residential property at the moment. But just because the boom has ended does not mean a crash is on its way.

In last year’s mortgage rate forecast, we predicted rates would drop below 2.00% and stay low, which they did for most of 2021. Our house price prediction wasn't so on the money, but that one comes down to a matter of timing. Here's our latest analysis.